OVERVIEW: 2019 AHL Central Division Semifinals Series - Chicago & Grand Rapids

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CHICAGO, Ill -- The Chicago Wolves had been waiting for their playoff opponent since March 29. That’s when they clinched a spot in the post-season; it took more than two weeks for the team to find out who they’d be facing. Playoff seeding came down to the last day of the regular season and the Wolves had such a lead on the rest of the division — they’d clinched the Central on April 6 — that that their fate was entirely out of their hands.

It wasn’t until the Milwaukee Admirals won their final game over the Rockford IceHogs that playoff seeding became finalized, but by the end of Sunday night, the Wolves knew who they’d be facing: the Grand Rapids Griffins.

The Griffins closed out the regular season with nine straight losses. They looked nothing like the team that the Wolves spent much of the season battling with in the fight for the top of the Central Division. So the Wolves find themselves in the predicament of not knowing exactly which version of the Griffins they’re going to face beginning on Friday night. Will they see the deeply competitive team with whom they often traded spots at the top of the division? Or will they see the somewhat hapless opponent who very nearly missed out on the playoffs altogether?

Let’s look at some key statistics and players for each team to help decide who may have the edge.

Records

Chicago Wolves

Overall: 44-22-6-4 Last 10 Games: 5-3-1-1

Grand Rapids Griffins

Overall: 38-27-7-4 Last 10 Games: 1-8-1-0

Down the stretch, even when the Wolves didn’t have much to play for, they still put out a strong product on ice. Their only regulation loses in their last 10 games came against the Milwaukee Admirals (twice), a team fighting for their own spot in the playoffs, and on the last day of the season against the Manitoba Moose, a game in which the Wolves scratched several of their top players.

Grand Rapids, on the other hand, looked like they were trying their hardest to fall out of playoff contention. Even when the Detroit Red Wings sent several players back down at the end of the NHL regular season, including Joe Hicketts, Martin Frk, and Matt Puempel, the Griffins struggled to find any chemistry together. They lost to all kinds of teams in all different ways: blowouts, tight games, shutouts, losses to teams long out of contention (Ontario), still fighting for a spot (Iowa), or comfortably clinched (San Jose). Each game brought new ways for the Griffins to lose.

Special Teams

Chicago Wolves

Power Play: 20.7% (6th overall) Penalty Kill: 82.2% (11th overall)

Grand Rapids Griffins

Power Play: 14.2% (30th overall) Penalty Kill: 78.5% (28th overall)

The Wolves pretty clearly have the upper hand in the special teams battle, and that’s despite enduring some stretches where their special teams units looked lost or ineffective on the ice. The loss of Erik Brannstrom to the Belleville Senators changed the dynamic of their power play units, and while Nic Hague and later Dylan Coghlan both expanded their roles, there have been a fair number of games where the Wolves just couldn’t get anything going on the power play, no matter the opponent. Expect the Wolves to renew their focus on shoring up their special teams before the playoffs start.

The Griffins, however, struggled on special teams. Over their nine-game losing streak to end the season, the Griffins scored five power play goals on 40 opportunities with the man advantage, giving them a 12.5% conversion rate. Against the Rockford IceHogs, the team with the worst power play in the league this year, the Griffins were unable to capitalize on any of their three power plays.

Similarly, the Griffins allowed 14 goals against while shorthanded, out of 39 total penalty kills, for a 35.9% success rate. Being completely underwater in terms of special teams work is clearly something that worked against them as they floundered down the stretch.

Leading Scorers

Chicago Wolves

Points: Daniel Carr (71), T.J. Tynan (71), Brooks Macek (60), Curtis McKenzie (54), Gage Quinney (43) Goals: Daniel Carr (30), Brooks Macek (26), Curtis McKenzie (20), Keegan Kolesar (20), Gage Quinney (19)

Grand Rapids Griffins

Points: Chris Terry (61), Matt Puempel (50),  Carter Camper (50), Turner Elson (39), Wade Megan (37) Goals: Chris Terry (29), Matt Puempel (24), Wade Megan (19), Turner Elson (18), Carter Camper (17)

Here’s where things get interesting for the Wolves. While they were able to maintain their dominance as the season wound down, they have been doing it without several of their leading scorers.

Forward Daniel Carr, poised at one point to handily win the AHL scoring race, hasn’t played since March 5, when he was hit by Jordan Nolan of the San Antonio Rampage. Nolan was subsequently suspended two games for charging on the play. Brooks Macek, who got out to a hot start this season in terms of goal scoring has been out of the lineup since March 20. At some points in the season, Macek, Carr, and Gage Quinney, part of the best line in the AHL in the early part of the season, were all out of the lineup with injuries.

Curtis McKenzie, a valuable player both in terms of experienced leadership and in play around the net, has been out of the lineup since April 5, a game which saw him take a fighting penalty early in the third.

Rookie Dylan Coghlan, who was finding comfort in an elevated role on the team, led the Wolves in scoring from the blue line. He was struck in the face by a puck in the next-to-last game of the season and did not return for the final game.

So far, missing these significant players hasn’t been a huge issue for the Wolves. The team all season long has had a “next man up” mentality which helped sustain them through injuries and call-ups. Keegan Kolesar, for example, stepped up and delivered career highs in offense, proving himself to be a much more developed player than he was in his rookie year. Tye McGinn, a late season addition, recorded 10 goals in 36 games with the Wolves, when he had only two in 26 with his previous team, the Manitoba Moose.

If the Wolves keep getting strong contributions from up and down their lineup, including the blue line, they should be able to continue to withstand the pressure until they start getting more healthy bodies down the stretch.

The Griffins are led in scoring by a group of veteran players. Chris Terry, Matt Puempel,  Carter Camper, Turner Elson, and Wade Megan are top five in both points and goals for the team. All are experienced, veteran players with between six and 10 years of professional experience. While that doesn’t bode well for the Detroit Red Wings’ prospect pool, it has been a huge help for the Griffins, who are short on young talent.

Young Difference Makers

Chicago Wolves

Cody Glass

Grand Rapids Griffins

Filip Zadina

Cody Glass has played six games of professional hockey and already has five points. At the conclusion of his season with the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks, Glass joined the Wolves and immediately made an impact. He scored two goals in his first game and has easily fit in down the middle for a team that was starting to see its dept tested due to injuries.

Glass missed 30 games in the regular season with Portland due to injury and only played in one of the team’s playoff games before they were eliminated. While he admits that he’s working on getting his timing back, he hasn’t looked out of place at all with the Wolves. Similar to defenseman Nic Hague, who joined the Wolves for the end of the season and their playoff push last year, Glass has the chance to be an important, every day contributor in the post-season.

Highly rated prospect Filip Zadina has struggled at times for the Griffins. Selected with the number six pick in the 2018 draft, Zadina is known for having a well-rounded game and has proven to be an offensive force in juniors and in international play. He hasn’t had quite the same impact in the AHL, though he is sixth on the team in both overall points and goals. He has shifts where he’s dominant, and then shifts where he’s completely unnoticeable on the ice.

If the offensively dominant version of Zadina shows up during the playoffs, he could be a thorn in the Wolves’ side for the series. His inconsistency, however, makes it difficult to know whether the Griffins will get the offensive phenom or a player who still at times looks lost on the ice.

Schedule

The best-of-five series opened in Chicago on Friday night.

Game 1 — Friday, April 19 — Allstate Arena (Chicago) — 7 p.m. Central Game 2 — Saturday, April 20 — Allstate Arena    (Chicago) — 7 p.m. Central Game 3 — Tuesday, April 23 — Van Andel Arena (Grand Rapids) — 6 p.m. Central Game 4 (if necessary) — Wednesday, April 24 — Van Andel Arena (Grand Rapids) — 6 p.m. Central Game 5 (if necessary) — Sunday, April 28 — Allstate Arena (Chicago) 3 p.m. Central